March Madness 2025: Chalk has ruled the NCAA tournament so far. Is it a blip or a sign of the times?

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So far, March hasn’t been mad at all.

The underdogs have underachieved. The longshots have misfired. The giant killers have been swatted aside.

Top-four seeds clinched a perfect 16-0 record in the first round of the men’s NCAA tournament this year when Michigan State routed Bryant late Friday night. This is only the sixth time that’s happened since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams, joining 1994, 2000, 2004, 2007 and most recently 2017.

The average margin of victory for top-four seeds on Thursday and Friday was a ridiculous 22.6 points. Half the No. 13, 14, 15 and 16 seeds in the field lost by 20-plus points. None came within closer than nine points of pulling an upset.

Norfolk State coach Robert Jones insisted he was “angry” oddsmakers anointed his team a 28.5-point underdog against top-seeded Florida. The Spartans trailed by as many as 32 points before halftime.

No team lower than a No. 5 seed lost in the first round of the NCAA men’s tournament. Duke blew out Moutn St. Mary’s by 44 points. (Zachary Taft-Imagn Images)

Akron guard Seth Wilson emphasized that the Zips would play with “no fear” against Arizona because they “can compete with anybody.” The fourth-seeded Wildcats cruised to a 28-point victory.

High Point, Yale and Grand Canyon were each popular 13-versus-4 upset picks. None led after the opening few minutes.

That college basketball’s top tier has been dominant is not a total shock to those who pay close attention to predictive metrics. Based on pre-NCAA tournament adjusted efficiency margins, the 2025 NCAA tournament has maybe the strongest quartet of No. 1 seeds in recent history. That same metric suggested that the gap between teams seeded on the top four lines and teams seeded 13 or worse was among the largest ever.

Why have this year’s top-four seeds been so dominant? The kneejerk answer is to point to college basketball’s changing landscape.

The proliferation of NIL money and the lack of penalty for transferring are funneling…

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Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/college-basketball/article/march-madness-2025-chalk-has-ruled-the-ncaa-tournament-so-far-is-it-a-blip-or-a-sign-of-the-times-044059896.html

Author : Jeff Eisenberg

Publish date : 2025-03-22 04:40:00

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