March Madness 2025: Which low seeds have the best chances of pulling a huge first-round upset?

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Will the 2025 men’s NCAA tournament produce a massive upset? The odds of it happening may be better than you think.

Five of the last six NCAA tournaments have included at least one No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 seed losing in the first round. And that stretch includes two No. 16 over No. 1 upsets.

In 2018, UMBC made tournament history with its win over No. 1 Virginia. In 2021, No. 15 Oral Roberts beat No. 2 Ohio State and No. 14 Abilene Christian took down No. 3 Texas. Three years ago, No. 15 St. Peter’s made its miraculous run to the Elite Eight after beating No. 2 Kentucky.

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In 2023, No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson beat No. 1 Purdue and No. 15 Princeton advanced to the Sweet 16 after beating No. 2 Arizona. A year ago, No. 14 Oakland became a March Madness darling when it beat No. 3 Kentucky.

Which high seed could find itself on the ropes early this year? Let’s take a look at the betting odds to figure out who’s most at risk.

Alabama State beat St. Francis on Tuesday night. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

(Dylan Buell via Getty Images)

No. 1 Auburn (-32.5) vs. No. 16 Alabama State

Alabama State needed a last-second Hail Mary to knock out St. Francis PA in the First Four on Tuesday night. Its reward is a game against the No. 1 overall seed. The 32.5-point spread is the highest of any first round game and the moneyline isn’t even available to bet at BetMGM.

No. 1 Houston (-29.5) vs. No. 16 SIU Edwardsville

SIUE finished second in the Ohio Valley Conference during the regular season before winning the tournament. Houston is a No. 1 seed for the third straight NCAA tournament and is looking to advance to at least the Elite Eight for the first time in that span. SIUE’s odds of pulling the upset at +3300, meaning you’d earn $330 on a $10 bet.

No. 1 Florida (-28.5) vs. No. 16 Norfolk State

The Gators have become a trendy national title pick after closing the regular season strong and beating Missouri, Alabama and Tennessee to win the SEC tournament. Norfolk State has been…

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Author : Nick Bromberg

Publish date : 2025-03-19 23:46:00

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