UNC basketball’s latest ESPN bubble watch odds

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After wins against Notre Dame and Wake Forest in the ACC Tournament, North Carolina’s odds to make the NCAA Tournament skyrocketed. Things were looking up but following a loss to Duke in the semifinals without Cooper Flagg, they took a major hit.

Did the Tar Heels do enough at the end of the season to prove that they are a different team than the one that lost all of those one-score Quad 1 games at the beginning of the year?

Most analysts say no and to keep UNC basketball on the outside looking in. But what are the latest odds from ESPN’s tournament forecast? Well according to Neil Paine from ESPN, UNC has a 62% chance to make the NCAA Tournament tonight. However, we should note that those odds were from FRIDAY night following UNC’s loss and BEFORE Boise State’s win over New Mexico.

Here is what he had to say about the Tar Heels:

“The latest chapter in the Duke-UNC rivalry saw the Tar Heels fall behind by 24 early in the second half, storm back to potentially tie the game late, only to see a free throw reversed on a lane violation. It was a heartbreaking loss for the Tar Heels, not just because it came against their bitter rivals, but also because of the NCAA tournament implications with UNC on the bubble. But ESPN’s forecast model has good news for the Heels: Their NCAA tournament odds stayed steady at 62%.

As long as the ACC sends four teams to the Big Dance, UNC has favorable résumé ranks and a 2-1 head-to-head record against SMU and Wake Forest, the conference’s other two candidates for that fourth spot. (It’s also worth noting that 11 of the Heels’ 13 losses have come against top-50 opponents, including to four top-five teams: Auburn, Alabama, Duke and Florida.) There’s still uncertainty around UNC’s fate, but the Heels are in better position than some other teams in our bubble list. (Updated March 14 at 9:40 p.m.)“

It remains to be seen where North Carolina will end up, but regardless of their lack of Quad 1 victories, UNC’s resume stacks up against any of the bubble…

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Source link : https://tarheelswire.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/tarheels/mens-basketball/2025/03/16/unc-basketball-bubble-watch-odds/82471210007/

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Publish date : 2025-03-16 17:40:00

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