March Madness: Breaking down the race for NCAA men’s tournament No. 1 seeds

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They may trade places when the new AP Top 25 is released Monday morning, but Auburn and Duke will not switch spots in NCAA tournament bracket projections.

Auburn remains the clear-cut No. 1 overall seed despite taking a pair of losses this past week. Duke still slots in behind the Tigers despite swatting aside North Carolina’s upset bid this past Saturday and demolishing everything else in its path for the past month.

Think of Auburn as a golfer who opened a five-stroke lead on the back nine. The Tigers may have bogeyed at Texas A&M and at home against Alabama last week, but they still maintain a comfortable lead entering the SEC tournament.

The SEC established itself as one of the strongest leagues in recent memory this season by winning an unprecedented 88.9% of its non-conference games and going 58-19 against the other four power conferences. Auburn clinched the outright title in that league with a full week remaining in the regular season.

A 15-4 Quadrant 1 record gives Auburn three more top-tier wins than any other team in men’s college basketball. Duke, by contrast, is 7-3 in Quadrant 1 games, a product of the lack of opportunities for marquee wins in an ACC that is way down this season and could produce as few as three NCAA tournament bids.

Auburn Tigers (27-4, 15-3 SEC)

NET: 2 | SOR: 1 | KenPom 2 | Q1A: 9-4 | Q1B: 6-0 | Q2: 6-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0

Marquee wins: Houston, Tennessee, at Alabama, at Kentucky, Iowa State, Purdue

Losses: at Duke, Florida, Alabama, at Texas A&M

Duke Blue Devils (28-3, 19-1 ACC)

NET: 1 | SOR: 4 | KenPom 1 | Q1A: 5-3 | Q1B: 2-0 | Q2: 5-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0

Marquee wins: Auburn, at Arizona, at Louisville, Illinois

Losses: Kentucky, Kansas, at Clemson

To its credit, Duke did beat Auburn in the lone meeting between the two teams this season at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke also holds the edge over Auburn in predictive metrics that take into account its ridiculous average margin of victory in ACC play. The Blue Devils outscored their 20 league opponents…

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Author : Yahoo Sports

Publish date : 2025-03-10 13:30:00

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