Michigan basketball’s ‘coin flip’ magic has it on the verge of Big Ten title

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It’s hard to describe the improbability of what Michigan basketball is doing.

The No. 13 Wolverines sit atop the Big Ten at 14-3 in league play, having gone 9-2 in their past 11.

It’s the best mark in the league over that span … but not one of those wins have come easily.

All nine have come by four points or less. That includes both games this week: A three-point win Monday at Nebraska in U-M’s worst offensive performance of the season, and a two-pointer at home Thursday vs. Rutgers to avoid a potential Quad 3 loss.

The Wolverines are all too aware of their slim margins since Jan. 19, especially as Thursday’s win, on a Nimari Burnett buzzer-beater, may have been the most fortunate result yet.

“We’ve got to find the right buttons to push to play better,” head coach Dusty May said. “It’s just been really odd we’ve had all that misfortunate happen and then be, so, I guess, I don’t want to say, I guess a little bit of luck down the stretch with guys missing free throws … and whatever the case. It usually balances out.

“This thing has been like a long day at the dentist. But we’re going to figure out a way to get out of this dental chair and win this game.”

Let’s take a look back at Michigan’s last nine trips to the dentist, er, victories, and assess how U-M was able to prevail, while considering the odds of U-M winning based on their lowest win expectancy’ after halftime.

*Via ESPN win probability metric.

Michigan center Vladislav Goldin (50) celebrates a play against Northwestern during the second half at Crisler Center in Ann Arbor on Sunday, Jan. 19, 2025.

Jan 19: U-M 80, Northwestern 76 (OT) — 38.2%

The low point: Down 61-58, 4:58 left.

The finish: After Vlad Goldin tied the game with a three-point play on the next possession. the Wolverines and Wildcats went back and forth well into overtime, with U-M gaining its edge by going 9-for-10 at the free throw line and keeping Northwestern from hitting any of its five shots from the field.

Jan. 27: U-M 76, Penn State 72 — 21.0%

The…

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Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/article/michigan-basketballs-coin-flip-magic-110727127.html

Author : Detroit Free Press

Publish date : 2025-03-01 11:07:00

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