Will Vanderbilt end 8-year March Madness drought after Tennessee, Kentucky wins? A look inside the numbers

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Vanderbilt basketball has a good shot to return to the NCAA Tournament in 2025.

The Commodores (16-4, 4-3 SEC) haven’t gone to March Madness since 2017 but according to analytics website Bart Torvik, they have a 79% chance of earning an at-large bid. It’s an impressive feat for coach Mark Byington, who is in his first season with the program, and with a brand-new roster has gotten Vanderbilt back in the conversation.

But a 79% chance isn’t 100%, and while wins over Tennessee and Kentucky felt monumental for the program, the Commodores’ 2023 team also beat Tennessee and Kentucky and wasn’t even in the First Four Out.

This team’s resume is better than the 2023 team’s, though, with a better NET ranking and without the bad losses that ultimately plagued that team’s resume under Jerry Stackhouse.

Here’s how Vanderbilt’s resume shakes out and what the Commodores can do to guarantee themselves a bid:

Vanderbilt basketball NCAA tournament resume positives

Vanderbilt is No. 38 in the NET. That’s certainly a strong ranking and not one that will raise a red flag like the 81st-ranked NET that the Commodores had two years ago. However, NET rankings can change a lot between January and March. In 2024, six teams with a NET ranking of 38 or better on Jan. 29 did not make the tournament, but just three teams with a NET in that range by Selection Sunday missed.

Vanderbilt has three Quadrant 1 wins and no Quadrant 3 or 4 losses. The Commodores also do not have any Quadrant 3 or 4 games remaining, meaning they are guaranteed to finish with no bad losses unless an SEC team completely tanks between now and then. Home wins over Tennessee and Kentucky are likely to age relatively well, even if the two teams do not remain in the top 10 as they were when Vanderbilt won those games.

In 2024, three of the four teams that ranked between 30 and 50 in the NET on Selection Sunday that had no Quadrant 3 or 4 losses made the tournament. In 2023, that number was seven of eight. Both times, the teams that got left…

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Source link : https://sports.yahoo.com/vanderbilt-end-8-march-madness-110437544.html

Author : The Tennessean

Publish date : 2025-01-30 11:04:00

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